Horsegears ratings compared to performance

In the past assessing potential racehorses by conformation has predominantly been based on traditional correct and show type conformation. But as this type of conformation is not a prime factor in adding speed to a racehorse, breeding has been the prime consideration when seriously analyzing the speed potential of any horse. However "Gears theory" has now given conformation a genuine prediction purpose, as the theory is used solely to rate the speed potential of a horse, with a strong bias to levering, as opposed to correct & show type conformation.

So what is the relationship between modern conformation ratings and racehorse performance? How accurately can conformation now  be applied to assess a young Thoroughbreds racetrack potential?

We have found Thoroughbreds will usually perform in a manner consistent with their Horsegears conformation ratings. The table below can be used as a guide as to what to expect from horses based on their Horsegears ratings only.

Good class / Stakes class 99 Plus Over 80% of the all-time Champions come from this bracket
Good class winner 98 +  
Multiple winner 96 +  
Maiden winner 93 +  
Non winner 93 or lower  

Like breeding, conformation ratings should be used as a guide only, but significantly most horses can be expected to perform according to the relevant  class shown in the above table, or a class either above or below. A superbly bred horse may win races with poor conformation due to other inherited traits such as it energy system or muscle quality.

Note. Genuine champion racehorses will generally rate between 100 and 102. But most horses that rate above 100 will not be champions, rather Group or good class winners.

One thing will never change with racehorses, and that is, there will always be exemptions to the rules. Whether by horses defying their breeding, conformation, training etc.  Conformation wise, a number Group/grade winners will rate lowly, just as a number of highly rated horses will battle just to win a race. Many factors ultimately influence a horses potential including its breeding, upbringing, soundness, energy system, training, and will to win.